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The Realtors Association of Hamilton and Burlington has released the stats for May 2023. Here are our thoughts on what the numbers mean for buyers and sellers in the market (and those considering whether or not they should join the party).
Sales are (basically) flat and inventory is down.
The Hamilton region recorded 750 residential sales in May – this is only a slight increase (less than 1%) as compared with the number of sales in May 2022. However, the total number of new listings is down nearly 25% as compared with this time last year. Therefore, we continue to see the total months of inventory remain low. May marked the third straight month with less than two months of available inventory for buyers.
TL:DR the buyers want to buy something but the pickings are slim
Average Sale Prices are up, down, and flat all at the same time.
The Average Sale Price for all residential sales across the Hamilton region in May was $814,082. The average has increased by 8.5% since the end of 2022 but this number is still 9.1% lower than it was at this time last year. The month-to-month change was very slight with an average of only 0.9% that it was in April. The change is more noticeable as compared to March 2023 with a 2.6% increase over that period.
Hamilton Mountain is booming.
Noted intellectual heavyweight, Derek Zoolander, once mused, “Hansel Hamilton Mountain. So hot right now”. The Hamilton Mountain area recorded the most sales in May by far with 186 transactions. Stoney Creek came in a distant 2nd place with 113 transactions. Average Sale Prices are climbing back to peak levels faster than the Hamilton average. The Average Sale Price on the Mountain in May was $803,622 which is only 6.0% lower than it was in May 2022 (the Hamilton area average is still 9.1% lower than last year).
Buyers looking on the Mountain are going to start feeling the squeeze as May ended with only 0.84 months of supply. This is nearly 30% lower than last year! Sellers who are debating whether or not it’s time to sell…are you listening?
Waiting for the market to dip? You might have missed it.
We may not have a crystal ball to predict the future but we’re feeling a little bit of deja vu. Take a look at the trajectory of the MLS Home Price Index since January 2021.
Source: Realtors Association of Hamilton and Burlington via the CREA HPI Tool
HPI is one of the best tools we have to gauge overall prices and trends in a specific market. We can see here the Hamilton market peaked in February 2022 with a steady decline until December 2022. The market has been on a steady incline since the beginning of the year. The overall angle of the incline from December 2022 to May 2022 looks quite similar to the angle of the incline from July 2021 to December 2021 (right before prices exploded and we hit the peak).
Source: Realtors Association of Hamilton and Burlington via the CREA HPI Tool
We are not saying that we are certain to see the same price explosion over the next few months particularly if buyer confidence wanes after the latest interest rate increase. However, we’re going to be keeping a close eye on this trajectory because it looks awfully familiar. Budget-conscious buyers especially need to take note as they may see themselves priced out of the market yet again if they sit back and wait too long.
Are you ready to make the move to buy a property in Hamilton? Let us help you get started with our Beginner’s Guide to Buying a Home in Hamilton.
Do the May stats have you thinking it’s time to sell? Here is a list of 50 Things You Can Expect When You Sell With BREL Hamilton.
